the molife of crappy booze

To anticipate what will shape 2010, we need to understand the TENsions that will define the opening year of the TENsions decade. The TENsions that are most prominent will evolve during the course of the decade. However the accelerating pace of change means that TENsions will inevitably define the decade, in myriad forms.

These are the 10 TENsions for 2010, the opening year of the TENsions.

1. Optimism – Fear

Many companies and workers are now daring to be optimistic as they put 2009 behind them, look forward to opportunities, and worry about getting left behind if things improve rapidly. Yet with the shock of the onset of the financial crisis still fresh, any optimism is subject to being shattered, resulting in wild swings in confidence.

2. Institutional work – Independent work

While many lost their jobs in 2009, sparking a rise in home-based work such as direct selling, many others gave up self-employment to return to the workforce. Over the long term more people are making the shift to work independently, by desire or necessity. However the temptations of self-employment can be replaced by desire for a steady pay packet, pulling people both ways.

3. Hyperconnected – Disconnected

The mobile Internet will explode with Google Phone and Android adding to iPhone’s success. For many work and play will happen wherever they happen to be. Others will reject the always-connected world, while some are being left behind due to the cost. The gulf between the hyperconnected and disconnected will increase.

4. Openness – Privacy

Young and old are getting used to sharing thoughts, photos, videos and more with the world at large – there is an inevitable and powerful trend to more openness and sharing. Yet the backlash is strong, with some choosing to pull out of social networks, pushing for greater privacy legislation, and crying out against pervasive government surveillance.

5. Youth – Experience

In the workplace there will be a premium placed on switched-on young people, who have high expectations of reward for their contribution. Yet many organizations are trying to work out how they will survive the loss through retirement of the massive contingent who have decades of experience. Many companies will not manage the generational tensions well.

6. Death of Media – Birth of Media

Literally hundreds of newspapers around the world have shut their doors in 2009. Broadcast TV is struggling. Advertising has slumped. Yet as traditional media staggers, a new world of mobile media, social media, video everywhere, and new business models are opening a new era in which media is at the center of the economy.

7. Immigration – Borders

Virtually every developed country is facing a natural population decrease with dire implications for fiscal policy and the economy. The tension between immigration, backed by the business community who want to drive growth, and borders, by those fearing social fragmentation and ecological impact, is becoming a key issue in almost every wealthy country.

8. Climate Activists – Climate Doubters

The gulf is widening between those who believe everything we can do to avert disastrous climate change may not be enough, and those who don’t believe or don’t care. The chasm will yawn wider between countries, between companies, and between individuals.

9. Innovation – Copying

In a global economy in which almost everything is a commodity, the only source of real value is innovation. However every innovation is copied almost instantaneously, all content flows outside commercial channels, and it is sometimes hard to distinguish between the original and the copy. The faster the pace of copying, the greater the drive to innovation.

10. Me – Everyone

In 2010 people who were born after the creation of the World Wide Web will first join the workforce. The nub of generational change today is about the tension between personal opportunity and expectations, and acting with the greater good in mind. How well can people focus both on their own well-being and that of society and the planet?

And the above 10 TENsions should keep your mind crunching for a while.

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In October, I spoke at Startup Camp Montreal5 about the 10 Stupid Things Entrepreneurs Do to Mess Up Their Businesses, and alluded to that talk again recently at the Forum for Entrepreneurs and Executives conference on entrepreneurship.  It came up in conversation again on Friday so it seems high time I actually post the notes from the talk on our blog.

I hope by pointing out common blunders, I can help entrepreneurs avoid a few of the dumb mistakes that (almost) every startup makes.  I also hope that some of you who have tripped into these potholes of entrepreneurship might come forward as case studies for a collection of essays that I’m compiling.  If you have a story that serves as object lesson to fellow entrepreneurs, I’d love to talk to you about it.  I promise to protect identities (where necessary and/or requested) and to be gentle with you.  The goal of the book is to help new entrepreneurs learn from those who have gone before.   If you’re interested in sharing a story, contact me via email.

Now, on to the list of 10 Stupid Things Entrepreneurs Do To Mess up Their Businesses*

1.  Think Like a Guppy

Okay, so you’re a small company.  Maybe it’s just you and a couple of co-founders. Hell, maybe it really is just you. That’s cause to be judicious with your resources, but it’s no reason to whine.

Somehow in the past few years, it’s become popular to put startups in some sort of protected charitable class.  You’re not a charity, you’re a business and if you want to be a big business, you have to think like one.  Manage your resources, posture, negotiate,  demand performance, deal.

You’re not a little fish; you’re a whale that has a long way to grow. Think like a small business and you’ll stay a small business. Think like a big business and you are more likely to become one.

2. Confuse Vision and Focus

Any business worth doing starts with a big, clear vision, that usually has something to do with owning a market, solving a giant problem, saving the world, or simply total world domination.

Still, there is a giant difference between vision and focus.  Vision is the audacious objective, the big game of entrepreneurship. It is what the business looks like when you’ve achieved your goals.

Focus is how you get there.

Focus is critical because it provides the actionable steps to make a vision a reality.  Focus prevents companies from running off course, or worse, chasing after the shiny objects that pose as opportunity. As importantly, focus provides a measure of progress and keeps ambitious entrepreneurs from becoming overwhelmed by their big vision.

Smart entrepreneurs dream big, but focus tightly. You can eat an elephant, but you have to do it one day at a time.

3.  Confuse activity for focus

There are no idle entrepreneurs.  Indeed, time is the enemy of startups, and every founder is busy, busy, busy building the business.  Or so it seems.

Lots of activity doesn’t necessarily mean lots of progress. If you’re unfocused and doing the wrong things, you can be mighty busy doing little of value.   When you’re lost, don’t just drive faster.  Stop.  Breathe. Assess. Focus.  And maybe even ask for directions.

4. Fall in Love with Technology

Of course you love your technology; every entrepreneur does.  It’s the product, after all, that people will buy. So you give it all your attention, defend it when criticized, convince your self that your baby can’t be ugly.

While dedication to technical excellence is admirable, in  a startup it’s the wrong target for your affection.  Instead, fall in love with your customers. They will tell you what to make.

5.  Focus on Fund Raising Instead of Building a Business

I know.  You need capital to build your company and venture capital is the fastest path to cash in the bank.  Or it used to be.

While few VCs will openly admit that they have much worry, truth is that the venture capital industry is in upheaval.  The perfect storm of the residual dot-com mega-funds, cash-efficient business creation models of the Web 2.0 cycle, and a global economic meltdown leave most funds with capital they can’t invest, capital calls they can’t make, or new funds they can’t raise. VCs are trying to re-engineer (and, in many instances, simply save) their businesses.  And while they may be saying something different, they really aren’t spending as much time thinking about how to invest in yours.

But even in the best of times, the best way to raise capital to build your business is to build and sell products and services that people want to buy.  In fact, nothing catches the interest of VCs like money coming into the company.

Consider that raising venture capital is a time-consuming activity.  Consider how you might otherwise use your time.  Developing a product?  Talking to customers?  Building strong channel partners?  Then consider this: what brings more value to your company: building PowerPoint presentations for Sand Hill Road or building your company?

6. Fail To Measure

Young companies run fast, but not every startup is clear on where they’re going or what it will look like when they arrive.  No doubt there will be plenty of turns along the way, but if you don’t lay down some milestones, you’ll have no way of knowing whether you’re on track or on time.

Companies of all sizes do what they measure, so measure what matters.  Determine by what metrics you will evaluate your progress and by which you will be evaluated by others.  Whether its development deadlines, page views, sign ups, downloads, or whatever – figure out what measurable metrics demonstrate growth and potential for your business.

Include in your metrics the sub-measures that affect the whole.  For example, if the measure is a sales goal, also measure marketing and development activity that contributes to achieving that goal.  That way, you have a clearer view sooner of what is going right, and possibly wrong.

Communicate those metrics to your team so they understand what they are and why they are important.  Then measure and report in meaningful and actionable increments.

7.  Ignore Yellow Lights

Optimism is a critical requirement for entrepreneurs. You have to believe that you can do the impossible while constrained in every possible way.

Still, your optimism can not be allowed to trump your reality.

That’s why metrics and measurement are so important to young companies.   It’s important to set those milestones while everything remains possible and reason rules your business planning.

As you march on, you’ll no doubt miss a milestone or fall short of some measure.  Pay attention. Take time to analyze the shortfall, learn from it and make course corrections as needed.

And, most importantly, listen for that little voice that urges you to press on even when all the warning signs point to another course of action.  Listen for it, not to it.

8. Hire Good People

Smart founders hire great people. Period.

You’ve got more work than you can do alone, your small team can’t move fast enough, and you’ve got the resources to bring in more people.  Hiring fast may seem like the answer.  It rarely is.

As much as founders need people to help build the business, people can be a time sink for founders.  The wrong person in the wrong job will bury you in management hassles, and they can do more to destroy team morale than a weeks of all-nighters.

As counter intuitive as it may seem, it is far better to take time to fill a position with the absolute best hire, than to burn time managing your way out of a bad hire.

9. Neglect the Details

An entrepreneur I know calls the details of budgeting and bookkeeping, employee contracts, stock agreements, and the myriad other details of business life “administrivia.”  It’s a fun word, but there is nothing trivial about business management.

In the earliest days, when you’re working on handshakes and shoestrings, there’s little need for over the top business administration, but that doesn’t obviate the need for some reasonable care.  That care (or lack thereof) will set the tone for your business as it grows.

A little time and a few dollars spent with a bookkeeper and lawyer in your earliest days will save a lot more time and money later when you need clean books and protected IP to make your case to investors, customers, and partners.   Forensic accounting and documentation is very expensive.  You can pay me now, or pay me a lot more later.

10. Lose Site of Your Values

Every company has a culture.  It’s either accidental or deliberate.

An accidental culture grows as people come on to the team, decisions are made, customs established, crises arise, pressures build and release, new challenges and opportunities preset themselves.  How founders act as the business unfolds sets the tone and establishes precedent.  Precedent, re-enacted time and again, grows into corporate culture.

In my experience, most accidental cultures are toxic, not unlike mold growing in a refrigerator; all the best ingredients are there, but having gone ignored or uncared for, they go to waste.

Deliberate cultures aren’t necessarily complex and they don’t require management consultants or self-help books.  They simply require awareness.  What do you believe and value?  If this company is your legacy, how do you want to be known?  How do you want your company to be perceived by its employees, customers, and community?

Let the awareness of and commitment to those values drive your business dealings and decisions. Be consistent with your values, make them part of the company, and demand that those around you do the same.

* with apologies to Dr. Laura Schlessinger for riffing on her popular book titles.

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Google Tablet?

There’s a hot web tablet coming next year, perhaps you’ve heard rumors about it? The tablet will be a simple slate that is designed to do one thing well, surf the web. It will be thin and light, and the 10-inch screen will sit in a package that is a no-frills design. It will be a simple slate device, comfortable to use in the hands for hours of tapping into the Internet.

The tablet will not run a “full” OS, that would be overkill. It will be designed from the ground up to work with the web. It will not be expected to replace full compute functionality for everyone, it will just do the web. It will do the web flawlessly, however, as that will be the entire purpose of this web tablet. It will leverage all web technology well, from Flash to HTML5, and that will open up a magical web experience. This tablet will not be coming from Apple as you might have thought, it will be coming from Google.

This new device will not run Intel processors, that would be overkill. It will rather be based on ARM technology, as that will provide all of the oomph needed to run the web stuff. It will have Wi-Fi and integrated 3G, as that will allow it to stay connected to the web all the time, using the fastest pipe available. It will be connected to the Google cloud, and the guts of the tablet, which are basically the same as that in smartphones, will mean it will be getting email and other pushed information even when sitting to the side.

The connection is important, as a good web tablet is a cloud computer through and through. All data will reside in the cloud, all apps will be web apps. Local storage will be kept at a minimum as it won’t be needed. The interface will be designed around working with the web, and it will be optimized for touch. It will not be a smartphone interface blown up to fit the bigger screen, it will be designed from the ground up to fit the display.

The slate will provide a great window into all of the major social networks that are popular. It will be able to visit any web site and deliver a great browsing experience. The philosophy behind the design will center around the understanding that most of the user’s needs for the tablet will center around the web, and it will do that as well as any computer can.

If this sounds like the Google Chrome OS that is coming next year, then you catch on quickly. Google is going to set the mobile world on fire next year with the introduction of Chrome, and a tablet is the perfect vehicle to showcase its strengths. I believe the smart folks at Google will single-handedly bring credibility to the smartbook genre, as Chrome netbooks will be smartbooks by their very design. They won’t be called smartbooks, they will simply be Google Computers. Google won’t be content to stay with the notebook form factor, as it is a simple jump to a tablet form.

A slate makes sense on so many levels that I believe Google is already thinking about one. The constant buzz about an Apple tablet, and with the strange situation surrounding the CrunchPad/ JooJoo, demonstrates the interest in a web tablet. Google already has everything in place to produce one based on the Chrome OS, and produce one better than anyone else. Such a Google ChromePad would be aimed at distributing through phone carriers with data plans, and could be produced cheaply enough to make them virtually free with typical subsidies.

The Google Tablet would be sold in major retail outlets, in addition to carrier distribution. Imagine how many tablets would be moved in a very short time if consumers could walk in Walmart and pick one up for free, or nearly free, and be online in just a few minutes. It won’t take long for most people to realize that most everything they do outside the work environment is now centered around the web, making a Google Tablet the most useful thing they own.

We may see a tablet from Apple, if the constant rumors pan out. But an Apple tablet will be expensive, making it a niche product. Google can make deals with anyone they want to build their tablet, and cheaper is better than expensive. The Chrome OS core will straddle the smartphone/ computer fence, providing a richer user experience than an iPhone OS tablet from Apple. Google has everything in place to do this, and do it right. I think they’ll take advantage of that situation.

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Update: All photos of Shellie’s son was taken off upon her request.

I had intended, today, to focus solely on coding and site issues, as I have been doing for the last 36 hours (aside from a brief nap). I made the mistake at glancing at the headlines a few minutes ago to see what parts of the world had passed me by, and I caught a story from Kim LaCapria over at the Inquisitr that really caught in my craw, and I couldn’t let pass without comment.

In case you hadn’t seen it, Shellie Ross, the author of the fairly popular Blog4Mom mommyblog, tweeted out yesterday: “Please pray like never before, my 2 yr old fell in the pool.” She has since protected her tweetstream, so while I can’t get a direct screenshot (I’ve borrowed this one from Kim’s post), I remember seeing it retweeted a number of times the other day.

About five hours after the initial tweet, she said on Twitter: “Remembering my million dollar baby http://twitpic.com/tkt9t.”

It’s a tragic story, though not particularly worthy of note in the grand scheme of things, particularly on a blog dealing primarily with “grand picture” of technology news, trends and analysis. There are a million tragedies a day in this world, and many of which are routinely documented on social networking sites.

Tuesday morning, though, is when insult was quite literally added to injury. Unable to let a woman grieve in community with the assemblage of friends that had come to support her in her hours of tragedy, segments of the media and the mommy-blogosphere saw fit to publicly flog the poor woman for allowing an accident like this to happen, and put the blame squarely on the shoulders of Shellie’s “addiction to Twitter.”

From Kim’s Inquisitr post:

Those of us who use the internet daily for work or maintaining important relationships may not find that shocking- and stay at home moms (or dads) are a group in particular who rely on the godsend of internet companionship to alleviate the loneliness that can settle in when parenting small children. So when tragedy visited her family, she reached out to her friends- and was reminded cruelly in her time of need that everyone on the internet isn’t always your friend.

Kim points to one mommy blogger in particular, Madison McGraw, who has taken it upon herself to not only blog a dissenting opinion on the topic (which, while not in good taste, is certainly her right), but reach out to the media and offer her armchair analysis as to why Shellie deserves no time to grieved. From Florida Today:

Madison McGraw, who does not know the Ross family, tweeted about the incident and also posted an item on her blog, at http://www.madisonmcgraw.com, titled “Mom Tweets While Son Drowns.”

“The person that I have compassion for is her son – who might still be alive if (Ross) interacted with her son like she interacted with people on Twitter,” McGraw wrote. “To me, that shows the repercussions for social media gone awry.”

McGraw’s Twitter account lists her hometown as being Bucks County, Pa., which is near Allentown.

Asked by FLORIDA TODAY if she thought it was appropriate to attack a woman she doesn’t know who just lost her son, McGraw responded, “If she didn’t want questions raised at such a painful time, perhaps she shouldn’t have tweeted immediately after her child died. A child is dead because (of) his mother’s infatuation with Twitter.”

This story hits particularly close to home for me as a work-from-home father.  My son is roughly the same age, and he’s at a stage of development where all it takes for him to get into trouble is for him to be out of site for literally two minutes.  Just this morning, I was on a video conference with Michael Sean Wright, and I stepped out on the back patio for a quick smoke, and even with my son in plain sight, he still managed to lock the back door without my noticing (which is why, incidentally, I always keep a spare key to  the front door in my wallet).

Twitter addiction has nothing to do with it – as a mommyblogger (just as in my situation), using Twitter is a very important part of what brings home the bacon, and two year olds are generally rambunctious trouble-seekers.

McGraw is certainly right about one thing: social media has gone awry.  I understand that when you’re a blogger and twitterer with a wide following, you’re open to rebuttal in the same way that many celebrities find their private lives open to scrutiny. The difference is, here, is that in the pursuit of attention and internet-fame, bloggers like McGraw feel it necessary to create a three-news-cycle item, cashing in on the tragedy of one of her peers.

Since McGraw has turned Shellie’s son’s drowning into an international incident, Shellie has taken both her blog and her twitter stream offline (as well as removed postings from TwitPic of her son’s memorial photos). McGraw has, in essence, caused Shellie to withdraw from her community in the same way that a few rotten apples caused Kathy Sierra to withdraw from the blogosphere two years ago.

The impulse to share with people who care about you that a major tragedy has occurred isn’t social media gone awry.  Feeling it’s incumbent upon you to demonize in the news media a mother, and one of your peers, who’s going through her life’s greatest grief is social media gone awry.

Social Media Gone Awry: When Mommybloggers Attack is a post from: The SiliconANGLE

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If you were looking for instant gratification from Palm’s turnaround you’re going to be sorely disappointed.

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