the molife of crappy booze

Manish Bhatia, President Advanced Digital Client Services,The Nielsen Company

SUMMARY: While still in the early stages of a digital media revolution, the consumer has entered an age of enlightenment with expanded options for devices, content, and schedule. The consumer has responded with expanded use of those media options. But changes in technology, regulation, pricing, content distribution deals, etc., will complicate predicting the future growth (and future winners).

It is truly a golden age of media for consumers. Content is available on multiple screens almost anywhere a consumer wants it—at home, at work, on trains, and on planes. And who among us hasn’t been nearly run down by a cab as we check an email, a news item, a tweet, or a web video on our smartphone as we cross the street? The big media story of 2009 is how we’ve fully embraced these expanding options… and come to demand even more.

Nielsen data shows that time spent on each of the three screens—TV, PC and Mobile—is increasing. In particular, the consumption of video content is on the rise across all platforms. Since the mainstreaming of the Internet about 10 years ago, TV viewing is up by about 20%. Online video consumption stands at more than three hours a month and mobile video is growing too, as devices and connectivity become more widespread.

So what gives? Where is all the extra time coming from? And why isn’t media consumption a zero sum game? Let’s look at a few factors.

Television:

1. High Definition: The quality of TV content has improved significantly with the advent of HD programming. Coupled with falling prices of TV hardware, HD technology has significantly enhanced the viewing experience.
2. DVRs: Have allowed viewers much greater control over when they watch what they want to watch. Time-shifted viewing is also on the rise.
3. Expanded Options: The increasing number of channels and video-on-demand content is contributing to the overall growth in TV viewing.
4. More TVs than People: The sheer growth in TV sets in the home means that viewing opportunity is available in almost every room, and every member has their own set…and then some.

Internet:

1. Bandwidth: The vast majority of users have broadband, which allows the delivery of richer content without degrading the experience.
2. Availability of Content: Rich media, streaming media and more offline content is finding its way online. And a constant stream of new consumer-generated media via Facebook and Twitter are deeply engaging users to spend more time online.
3. Accessibility: More than 40% of online video is viewed at the workplace. Workers sitting in their offices for 40 hours a week do spend a bit of that time surfing the Internet.

Mobile:

1. Infrastructure Upgrades: Service provides are upgrading networks fast. 3G networks are now the norm, and 4G is being rolled out allowing for faster download speeds.
2. More Powerful Devices: iPhones, Blackberries, smartphones, app stores and the recently launched Droid have blurred the lines between phone and PC. These devices are leading the growth of media consumption on mobile.
3. New Content: TV programming is now available on cell phones for a nominal fee. For someone who can’t get enough TV at home, they can take it with them almost anywhere.
4. Anytime Anywhere Media: One of the biggest advantages of smartphones is that the user can share content or have it delivered wherever they want.

What’s Next?

What does the next 3-5 years have in store? Given the massive change going on in technology, regulation, pricing, content distribution deals, etc., doing a simple projection based upon historical trends may be misleading. But five key trends will have a significant impact.

1. TV Everywhere: A cable MSO initiative to make TV content available to paying customers online took notable steps in 2009. The approach enhances viewers’ value proposition by taking content currently available only on TV to any screen, anywhere.
2. Net Neutrality: The big question before the FCC: Should Internet Service Providers offer all content, no matter the source or bandwidth requirements, to users with the same priority? Content companies want it. Access providers want to have some control over what flows through the network they have built to optimize performance. The legislative outcome will have a significant impact on content available online and mobile networks.
3. Tiered Pricing for Internet: “All you can eat” access plans—now the norm for broadband—changed the “pay as you go” model. With increasingly rich content available online, heavy video online consumes use much more bandwidth than a light or occasional user. Should both pay the same amount since the cost to deliver Internet content is variable? The counter argument is that TV is a fixed price model and with cost of bandwidth dropping fast, the incremental expense associated with a heavy user should not warrant higher prices.
4. Interactive TV: Various companies are rolling out interactive services to enrich the TV viewing experience and to enable viewers to interact with programming and advertising messages. While this is in the very early stages of rollout, if successful, TV can be expected to take an even larger share of people’s screen time.
5. Over-the-Top TV: With wireless Internet access now common, device manufacturers are introducing DVD players, TVs and Video Game consoles with built-in wireless connectivity. These devices piggy back on an existing wireless network and pull content from the Internet straight to the TV set with no additional hardware, wires or advanced degree in electronics required. And there is content that is well suited for TV that can be delivered via the Internet—NetFlix is just one example. Some providers are making applications like Facebook available on the TV sets. Not all of the experiments will succeed as consumers will not want some applications on the TV. Expect TV in 3-5 years to be quite different from what it is today.

By this time next year, we’ll likely be dissecting the impact of a few other game-changing additions to the media mix (EpixHD? An Apple tablet – iPad was launched today!). No matter what the addition, any new evolutions to the media universe will have to follow the new laws of increasing portability and increasing content to satisfy the consumer’s increasing demand for anytime/anywhere access. We’ll be watching.

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The connected customer leaves brands in the dust.

As we close out the year, it’s important to look back at what happened in social marketing in order to plan for the future. There were four key trends in 2009 that CMOs should reflect on, starting at the macro level then shifting down to micro real-time updates. They are:

The Recession Spurred Consumers to Adopt Social Technologies. Humans are social creatures and, as a result, they tend to band together in hard times. During financial crises, this same behavior is evident: People connect to one other, share, learn, and communicate. What’s more, with unemployment at record highs, those with internet access have more time–and need–to connect with others. It’s evident through Facebook’s 350 million global users. For brands, it’s interesting to note a study by Razorfish, which indicates that 52% of consumers have blogged about a brand’s product or experience. Don’t expect this to change as the recession lifts, as it is the preferred method of communication for young people.

Some Brands Followed Suit With Social Marketing. Marketing budgets are pinched during tough times. Recent data from eMarketer indicates that companies are slashing print budgets by 37% and TV by 21% as a response to the recession. Yet marketers know that tough times also spur innovation, as they experiment with mediums such as social marketing. Social marketing promises lower costs and bigger returns. In fact, word-of-mouth campaigns encourage consumers to do the marketing on behalf of the brand themselves. Yet despite the opportunity, research conducted by the Altimeter Group (where I’m a partner) and Wetpaint found that while brands like Starbucks, Dell, eBay, and Google interact with their customers, most brands do not. Still, we’re seeing a noticeable increase in social marketing budgets, as brands find ways to innovative marketing.

Social Networks Share Data, Spreading Social Influence. A key trend across the technology vendor space in 2009 is that social networks are connecting with other systems. Much like how Apple’s iPhone developer program enables third parties to build and create new applications, many social networks are doing the same. Take for example, LinkedIn, a business network that recently began allowing third party sites to connect with the LinkedIn platform to share data. Similarly, Facebook Connect allows users to log into third party sites using their Facebook ID. There have been over 80,000 connections since this time last year. So what does this data availability mean? It means that consumers’ social experience will spread from site to site, and that wherever they go online or off, they can access their friends’ opinions, experiences, and recommendations in real time.

Consumers Move Faster By Sharing Real-Time Data. In August, 2009, blogger Heather Armstrong, who boasts over a million followers on Twitter was miffed about a shabby customer experience and tweeted about it. Although the company, Whirlpool, responded within hours, the damage had been done–Armstrong’s real-time feedback about her company experience spread quickly through her network and beyond. This spread of customer experiences in real time is a trend, in fact, status updates are a feature found not just in Twitter but in many social networks like Facebook and LinkedIn. Recently, Twitter signed a deal to allow Microsoft’s Bing and Google access its real-time data, displaying real-time tweets which appear along side traditional search results. So what is the impact of this increase in real-time data? It means that consumers can instantly give feedback about their product experiences and tell their friends. For brands, it means they have to move faster to keep up with consumers who are sharing.

Takeaway: This year, consumers are more connected, and moving faster than brands. It’s essential for senior marketers to use the past to plan for the future, and these four trends indicate that people are connecting and sharing with each other–at an increased pace. Brands need to develop a strategy and a plan to respond–not simply react–to the latest technology. In our next piece, we will discuss the key trends to watch in 2010 to help with strategy planning.

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That’s for today till after Christmas! Have a safe holiday!

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To anticipate what will shape 2010, we need to understand the TENsions that will define the opening year of the TENsions decade. The TENsions that are most prominent will evolve during the course of the decade. However the accelerating pace of change means that TENsions will inevitably define the decade, in myriad forms.

These are the 10 TENsions for 2010, the opening year of the TENsions.

1. Optimism – Fear

Many companies and workers are now daring to be optimistic as they put 2009 behind them, look forward to opportunities, and worry about getting left behind if things improve rapidly. Yet with the shock of the onset of the financial crisis still fresh, any optimism is subject to being shattered, resulting in wild swings in confidence.

2. Institutional work – Independent work

While many lost their jobs in 2009, sparking a rise in home-based work such as direct selling, many others gave up self-employment to return to the workforce. Over the long term more people are making the shift to work independently, by desire or necessity. However the temptations of self-employment can be replaced by desire for a steady pay packet, pulling people both ways.

3. Hyperconnected – Disconnected

The mobile Internet will explode with Google Phone and Android adding to iPhone’s success. For many work and play will happen wherever they happen to be. Others will reject the always-connected world, while some are being left behind due to the cost. The gulf between the hyperconnected and disconnected will increase.

4. Openness – Privacy

Young and old are getting used to sharing thoughts, photos, videos and more with the world at large – there is an inevitable and powerful trend to more openness and sharing. Yet the backlash is strong, with some choosing to pull out of social networks, pushing for greater privacy legislation, and crying out against pervasive government surveillance.

5. Youth – Experience

In the workplace there will be a premium placed on switched-on young people, who have high expectations of reward for their contribution. Yet many organizations are trying to work out how they will survive the loss through retirement of the massive contingent who have decades of experience. Many companies will not manage the generational tensions well.

6. Death of Media – Birth of Media

Literally hundreds of newspapers around the world have shut their doors in 2009. Broadcast TV is struggling. Advertising has slumped. Yet as traditional media staggers, a new world of mobile media, social media, video everywhere, and new business models are opening a new era in which media is at the center of the economy.

7. Immigration – Borders

Virtually every developed country is facing a natural population decrease with dire implications for fiscal policy and the economy. The tension between immigration, backed by the business community who want to drive growth, and borders, by those fearing social fragmentation and ecological impact, is becoming a key issue in almost every wealthy country.

8. Climate Activists – Climate Doubters

The gulf is widening between those who believe everything we can do to avert disastrous climate change may not be enough, and those who don’t believe or don’t care. The chasm will yawn wider between countries, between companies, and between individuals.

9. Innovation – Copying

In a global economy in which almost everything is a commodity, the only source of real value is innovation. However every innovation is copied almost instantaneously, all content flows outside commercial channels, and it is sometimes hard to distinguish between the original and the copy. The faster the pace of copying, the greater the drive to innovation.

10. Me – Everyone

In 2010 people who were born after the creation of the World Wide Web will first join the workforce. The nub of generational change today is about the tension between personal opportunity and expectations, and acting with the greater good in mind. How well can people focus both on their own well-being and that of society and the planet?

And the above 10 TENsions should keep your mind crunching for a while.

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In October, I spoke at Startup Camp Montreal5 about the 10 Stupid Things Entrepreneurs Do to Mess Up Their Businesses, and alluded to that talk again recently at the Forum for Entrepreneurs and Executives conference on entrepreneurship.  It came up in conversation again on Friday so it seems high time I actually post the notes from the talk on our blog.

I hope by pointing out common blunders, I can help entrepreneurs avoid a few of the dumb mistakes that (almost) every startup makes.  I also hope that some of you who have tripped into these potholes of entrepreneurship might come forward as case studies for a collection of essays that I’m compiling.  If you have a story that serves as object lesson to fellow entrepreneurs, I’d love to talk to you about it.  I promise to protect identities (where necessary and/or requested) and to be gentle with you.  The goal of the book is to help new entrepreneurs learn from those who have gone before.   If you’re interested in sharing a story, contact me via email.

Now, on to the list of 10 Stupid Things Entrepreneurs Do To Mess up Their Businesses*

1.  Think Like a Guppy

Okay, so you’re a small company.  Maybe it’s just you and a couple of co-founders. Hell, maybe it really is just you. That’s cause to be judicious with your resources, but it’s no reason to whine.

Somehow in the past few years, it’s become popular to put startups in some sort of protected charitable class.  You’re not a charity, you’re a business and if you want to be a big business, you have to think like one.  Manage your resources, posture, negotiate,  demand performance, deal.

You’re not a little fish; you’re a whale that has a long way to grow. Think like a small business and you’ll stay a small business. Think like a big business and you are more likely to become one.

2. Confuse Vision and Focus

Any business worth doing starts with a big, clear vision, that usually has something to do with owning a market, solving a giant problem, saving the world, or simply total world domination.

Still, there is a giant difference between vision and focus.  Vision is the audacious objective, the big game of entrepreneurship. It is what the business looks like when you’ve achieved your goals.

Focus is how you get there.

Focus is critical because it provides the actionable steps to make a vision a reality.  Focus prevents companies from running off course, or worse, chasing after the shiny objects that pose as opportunity. As importantly, focus provides a measure of progress and keeps ambitious entrepreneurs from becoming overwhelmed by their big vision.

Smart entrepreneurs dream big, but focus tightly. You can eat an elephant, but you have to do it one day at a time.

3.  Confuse activity for focus

There are no idle entrepreneurs.  Indeed, time is the enemy of startups, and every founder is busy, busy, busy building the business.  Or so it seems.

Lots of activity doesn’t necessarily mean lots of progress. If you’re unfocused and doing the wrong things, you can be mighty busy doing little of value.   When you’re lost, don’t just drive faster.  Stop.  Breathe. Assess. Focus.  And maybe even ask for directions.

4. Fall in Love with Technology

Of course you love your technology; every entrepreneur does.  It’s the product, after all, that people will buy. So you give it all your attention, defend it when criticized, convince your self that your baby can’t be ugly.

While dedication to technical excellence is admirable, in  a startup it’s the wrong target for your affection.  Instead, fall in love with your customers. They will tell you what to make.

5.  Focus on Fund Raising Instead of Building a Business

I know.  You need capital to build your company and venture capital is the fastest path to cash in the bank.  Or it used to be.

While few VCs will openly admit that they have much worry, truth is that the venture capital industry is in upheaval.  The perfect storm of the residual dot-com mega-funds, cash-efficient business creation models of the Web 2.0 cycle, and a global economic meltdown leave most funds with capital they can’t invest, capital calls they can’t make, or new funds they can’t raise. VCs are trying to re-engineer (and, in many instances, simply save) their businesses.  And while they may be saying something different, they really aren’t spending as much time thinking about how to invest in yours.

But even in the best of times, the best way to raise capital to build your business is to build and sell products and services that people want to buy.  In fact, nothing catches the interest of VCs like money coming into the company.

Consider that raising venture capital is a time-consuming activity.  Consider how you might otherwise use your time.  Developing a product?  Talking to customers?  Building strong channel partners?  Then consider this: what brings more value to your company: building PowerPoint presentations for Sand Hill Road or building your company?

6. Fail To Measure

Young companies run fast, but not every startup is clear on where they’re going or what it will look like when they arrive.  No doubt there will be plenty of turns along the way, but if you don’t lay down some milestones, you’ll have no way of knowing whether you’re on track or on time.

Companies of all sizes do what they measure, so measure what matters.  Determine by what metrics you will evaluate your progress and by which you will be evaluated by others.  Whether its development deadlines, page views, sign ups, downloads, or whatever – figure out what measurable metrics demonstrate growth and potential for your business.

Include in your metrics the sub-measures that affect the whole.  For example, if the measure is a sales goal, also measure marketing and development activity that contributes to achieving that goal.  That way, you have a clearer view sooner of what is going right, and possibly wrong.

Communicate those metrics to your team so they understand what they are and why they are important.  Then measure and report in meaningful and actionable increments.

7.  Ignore Yellow Lights

Optimism is a critical requirement for entrepreneurs. You have to believe that you can do the impossible while constrained in every possible way.

Still, your optimism can not be allowed to trump your reality.

That’s why metrics and measurement are so important to young companies.   It’s important to set those milestones while everything remains possible and reason rules your business planning.

As you march on, you’ll no doubt miss a milestone or fall short of some measure.  Pay attention. Take time to analyze the shortfall, learn from it and make course corrections as needed.

And, most importantly, listen for that little voice that urges you to press on even when all the warning signs point to another course of action.  Listen for it, not to it.

8. Hire Good People

Smart founders hire great people. Period.

You’ve got more work than you can do alone, your small team can’t move fast enough, and you’ve got the resources to bring in more people.  Hiring fast may seem like the answer.  It rarely is.

As much as founders need people to help build the business, people can be a time sink for founders.  The wrong person in the wrong job will bury you in management hassles, and they can do more to destroy team morale than a weeks of all-nighters.

As counter intuitive as it may seem, it is far better to take time to fill a position with the absolute best hire, than to burn time managing your way out of a bad hire.

9. Neglect the Details

An entrepreneur I know calls the details of budgeting and bookkeeping, employee contracts, stock agreements, and the myriad other details of business life “administrivia.”  It’s a fun word, but there is nothing trivial about business management.

In the earliest days, when you’re working on handshakes and shoestrings, there’s little need for over the top business administration, but that doesn’t obviate the need for some reasonable care.  That care (or lack thereof) will set the tone for your business as it grows.

A little time and a few dollars spent with a bookkeeper and lawyer in your earliest days will save a lot more time and money later when you need clean books and protected IP to make your case to investors, customers, and partners.   Forensic accounting and documentation is very expensive.  You can pay me now, or pay me a lot more later.

10. Lose Site of Your Values

Every company has a culture.  It’s either accidental or deliberate.

An accidental culture grows as people come on to the team, decisions are made, customs established, crises arise, pressures build and release, new challenges and opportunities preset themselves.  How founders act as the business unfolds sets the tone and establishes precedent.  Precedent, re-enacted time and again, grows into corporate culture.

In my experience, most accidental cultures are toxic, not unlike mold growing in a refrigerator; all the best ingredients are there, but having gone ignored or uncared for, they go to waste.

Deliberate cultures aren’t necessarily complex and they don’t require management consultants or self-help books.  They simply require awareness.  What do you believe and value?  If this company is your legacy, how do you want to be known?  How do you want your company to be perceived by its employees, customers, and community?

Let the awareness of and commitment to those values drive your business dealings and decisions. Be consistent with your values, make them part of the company, and demand that those around you do the same.

* with apologies to Dr. Laura Schlessinger for riffing on her popular book titles.

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Google Tablet?

There’s a hot web tablet coming next year, perhaps you’ve heard rumors about it? The tablet will be a simple slate that is designed to do one thing well, surf the web. It will be thin and light, and the 10-inch screen will sit in a package that is a no-frills design. It will be a simple slate device, comfortable to use in the hands for hours of tapping into the Internet.

The tablet will not run a “full” OS, that would be overkill. It will be designed from the ground up to work with the web. It will not be expected to replace full compute functionality for everyone, it will just do the web. It will do the web flawlessly, however, as that will be the entire purpose of this web tablet. It will leverage all web technology well, from Flash to HTML5, and that will open up a magical web experience. This tablet will not be coming from Apple as you might have thought, it will be coming from Google.

This new device will not run Intel processors, that would be overkill. It will rather be based on ARM technology, as that will provide all of the oomph needed to run the web stuff. It will have Wi-Fi and integrated 3G, as that will allow it to stay connected to the web all the time, using the fastest pipe available. It will be connected to the Google cloud, and the guts of the tablet, which are basically the same as that in smartphones, will mean it will be getting email and other pushed information even when sitting to the side.

The connection is important, as a good web tablet is a cloud computer through and through. All data will reside in the cloud, all apps will be web apps. Local storage will be kept at a minimum as it won’t be needed. The interface will be designed around working with the web, and it will be optimized for touch. It will not be a smartphone interface blown up to fit the bigger screen, it will be designed from the ground up to fit the display.

The slate will provide a great window into all of the major social networks that are popular. It will be able to visit any web site and deliver a great browsing experience. The philosophy behind the design will center around the understanding that most of the user’s needs for the tablet will center around the web, and it will do that as well as any computer can.

If this sounds like the Google Chrome OS that is coming next year, then you catch on quickly. Google is going to set the mobile world on fire next year with the introduction of Chrome, and a tablet is the perfect vehicle to showcase its strengths. I believe the smart folks at Google will single-handedly bring credibility to the smartbook genre, as Chrome netbooks will be smartbooks by their very design. They won’t be called smartbooks, they will simply be Google Computers. Google won’t be content to stay with the notebook form factor, as it is a simple jump to a tablet form.

A slate makes sense on so many levels that I believe Google is already thinking about one. The constant buzz about an Apple tablet, and with the strange situation surrounding the CrunchPad/ JooJoo, demonstrates the interest in a web tablet. Google already has everything in place to produce one based on the Chrome OS, and produce one better than anyone else. Such a Google ChromePad would be aimed at distributing through phone carriers with data plans, and could be produced cheaply enough to make them virtually free with typical subsidies.

The Google Tablet would be sold in major retail outlets, in addition to carrier distribution. Imagine how many tablets would be moved in a very short time if consumers could walk in Walmart and pick one up for free, or nearly free, and be online in just a few minutes. It won’t take long for most people to realize that most everything they do outside the work environment is now centered around the web, making a Google Tablet the most useful thing they own.

We may see a tablet from Apple, if the constant rumors pan out. But an Apple tablet will be expensive, making it a niche product. Google can make deals with anyone they want to build their tablet, and cheaper is better than expensive. The Chrome OS core will straddle the smartphone/ computer fence, providing a richer user experience than an iPhone OS tablet from Apple. Google has everything in place to do this, and do it right. I think they’ll take advantage of that situation.

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