the molife of crappy booze

The google voice iPhone site that launched yesterday shows just how much you can do with html5 and browser side storage on the iPhone.  Like the gmail site and techmeme mobiles site before, the “site” feels like an app.

I’m not one of these anti-app folks that thinks everything should be in the browser.  It’s just that for casual experiences, where a user won’t be using the application ten times a day, a great mobile site that he/she can access without an app download is what makes sense.

One dogpatch company wants to create a great mobile registration app for signups at events. I urged the company to do html5 instead. This way when the crowd is urged to signup there is no download attrition.  Also people will likely only access this site on a mobile basis occasionally.  Mobile web makes sense.

The same is true for a content site that I met with this week that drives traffic via Twitter and email.  Again, I urged great mobile web experience vs. iPhone app.  This way links can be passed an opened with a great mobile experience without any download.

If I was building a social networking experience or business productivity site, I would build an app. But for many more cases great mobile web is where I’d make my investment.

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Manish Bhatia, President Advanced Digital Client Services,The Nielsen Company

SUMMARY: While still in the early stages of a digital media revolution, the consumer has entered an age of enlightenment with expanded options for devices, content, and schedule. The consumer has responded with expanded use of those media options. But changes in technology, regulation, pricing, content distribution deals, etc., will complicate predicting the future growth (and future winners).

It is truly a golden age of media for consumers. Content is available on multiple screens almost anywhere a consumer wants it—at home, at work, on trains, and on planes. And who among us hasn’t been nearly run down by a cab as we check an email, a news item, a tweet, or a web video on our smartphone as we cross the street? The big media story of 2009 is how we’ve fully embraced these expanding options… and come to demand even more.

Nielsen data shows that time spent on each of the three screens—TV, PC and Mobile—is increasing. In particular, the consumption of video content is on the rise across all platforms. Since the mainstreaming of the Internet about 10 years ago, TV viewing is up by about 20%. Online video consumption stands at more than three hours a month and mobile video is growing too, as devices and connectivity become more widespread.

So what gives? Where is all the extra time coming from? And why isn’t media consumption a zero sum game? Let’s look at a few factors.

Television:

1. High Definition: The quality of TV content has improved significantly with the advent of HD programming. Coupled with falling prices of TV hardware, HD technology has significantly enhanced the viewing experience.
2. DVRs: Have allowed viewers much greater control over when they watch what they want to watch. Time-shifted viewing is also on the rise.
3. Expanded Options: The increasing number of channels and video-on-demand content is contributing to the overall growth in TV viewing.
4. More TVs than People: The sheer growth in TV sets in the home means that viewing opportunity is available in almost every room, and every member has their own set…and then some.

Internet:

1. Bandwidth: The vast majority of users have broadband, which allows the delivery of richer content without degrading the experience.
2. Availability of Content: Rich media, streaming media and more offline content is finding its way online. And a constant stream of new consumer-generated media via Facebook and Twitter are deeply engaging users to spend more time online.
3. Accessibility: More than 40% of online video is viewed at the workplace. Workers sitting in their offices for 40 hours a week do spend a bit of that time surfing the Internet.

Mobile:

1. Infrastructure Upgrades: Service provides are upgrading networks fast. 3G networks are now the norm, and 4G is being rolled out allowing for faster download speeds.
2. More Powerful Devices: iPhones, Blackberries, smartphones, app stores and the recently launched Droid have blurred the lines between phone and PC. These devices are leading the growth of media consumption on mobile.
3. New Content: TV programming is now available on cell phones for a nominal fee. For someone who can’t get enough TV at home, they can take it with them almost anywhere.
4. Anytime Anywhere Media: One of the biggest advantages of smartphones is that the user can share content or have it delivered wherever they want.

What’s Next?

What does the next 3-5 years have in store? Given the massive change going on in technology, regulation, pricing, content distribution deals, etc., doing a simple projection based upon historical trends may be misleading. But five key trends will have a significant impact.

1. TV Everywhere: A cable MSO initiative to make TV content available to paying customers online took notable steps in 2009. The approach enhances viewers’ value proposition by taking content currently available only on TV to any screen, anywhere.
2. Net Neutrality: The big question before the FCC: Should Internet Service Providers offer all content, no matter the source or bandwidth requirements, to users with the same priority? Content companies want it. Access providers want to have some control over what flows through the network they have built to optimize performance. The legislative outcome will have a significant impact on content available online and mobile networks.
3. Tiered Pricing for Internet: “All you can eat” access plans—now the norm for broadband—changed the “pay as you go” model. With increasingly rich content available online, heavy video online consumes use much more bandwidth than a light or occasional user. Should both pay the same amount since the cost to deliver Internet content is variable? The counter argument is that TV is a fixed price model and with cost of bandwidth dropping fast, the incremental expense associated with a heavy user should not warrant higher prices.
4. Interactive TV: Various companies are rolling out interactive services to enrich the TV viewing experience and to enable viewers to interact with programming and advertising messages. While this is in the very early stages of rollout, if successful, TV can be expected to take an even larger share of people’s screen time.
5. Over-the-Top TV: With wireless Internet access now common, device manufacturers are introducing DVD players, TVs and Video Game consoles with built-in wireless connectivity. These devices piggy back on an existing wireless network and pull content from the Internet straight to the TV set with no additional hardware, wires or advanced degree in electronics required. And there is content that is well suited for TV that can be delivered via the Internet—NetFlix is just one example. Some providers are making applications like Facebook available on the TV sets. Not all of the experiments will succeed as consumers will not want some applications on the TV. Expect TV in 3-5 years to be quite different from what it is today.

By this time next year, we’ll likely be dissecting the impact of a few other game-changing additions to the media mix (EpixHD? An Apple tablet – iPad was launched today!). No matter what the addition, any new evolutions to the media universe will have to follow the new laws of increasing portability and increasing content to satisfy the consumer’s increasing demand for anytime/anywhere access. We’ll be watching.

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John Burbank, CEO, Nielsen Online Division

This week, Nielsen announced the creation of a joint venture with the Catalina Marketing Corporation. This venture is a major advancement for marketing ROI as well as a milestone in the evolution of online advertising. The next phase of the Internet— what we call the “audience-centric Web”— will be characterized by three things:

1. The audience is the center of everything. Small wonder that many brand advertisers only dabble with the Web; we’ve given them metrics—clicks, impressions, page views—but those metrics lack context and value and don’t relate to their customers. In the audience-centric Web, metrics will answer traditional marketing questions: Who saw my ad? Did I affect the way they think about my product? Did they actually buy more?
2. Online is no longer an island. Sophisticated marketers will be able to advertise across channels, supported by the transparency and efficiency of consistent media metrics. A brand’s measure of online impact will be the same as on TV or mobile or print. Online publishers will be able to compete—on a level playing field—across media.
3. The richer the consumer data, the richer the business opportunity. Nielsen has helped the largest and most successful marketers and media companies in the world grow their businesses. Their market shares have grown through a richer and deeper understanding of their consumers. Whether it’s reaching men aged 18 to 24, women with incomes of over $150,000, heavy users of Tide or Hispanic teens, the match of consumer need to marketing message starts with the audience. In the audience-centric Web, that richness of insight will now be available to online marketers, just as it has been offline.

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This is truly a golden age of anytime, anywhere media. And rather than Americans replacing TV with the Internet or a mobile device, they are just consuming more—often simultaneously. Despite the availability of video content on the Internet, TV viewing is up by about 20% over the last decade, and the average American watches 141 hours of programming each month. Online video consumption stands at more than three hours a month—up from virtually nothing ten years ago. Mobile viewing is growing, too, as devices and connectivity become more widespread. Smartphone usage is climbing and text messaging is through the roof. On average, teens use more than 3,500 text messages a month and adults about 500.

Top Cross Media Trends in 2010:

1. Convergence is in demand. As American consumers continue to outfit their “home bunkers,” they will invest in the next generation of TV’s that are Internet enabled giving universal access to content across screens combined with the devices in which they’ve already invested, such as HDTVs, DVRs and “over-the-top” systems. And 4G networks make it an all-Internet world.
2. Second and third screen initiatives grow. More content originally for the TV will be accessed on the Web, long-form video content for mobile phones will expand and efforts to make over-the-top systems will become more compelling for accessing Web content.
3. Audience fragmentation continues. The increasing variety and sophistication of media options will make it a challenge to keep viewers engaged and receptive. Evolutions to the media universe will need to follow the new laws of increasing portability and increasing content.
4. New and varied approaches to content are created. New, low-cost models are key (e.g., Jay Leno’s nightly 10 p.m. program on NBC). Low-performing networks will go extinct and free on demand online offerings will need reconsideration.
5. Multiple distribution opportunities are formed. Deals—including the Comcast/NBC deal—will create new outlets for programming, while studios replace the traditional executive brand builders responsible for a number of distribution channels.

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The connected customer leaves brands in the dust.

As we close out the year, it’s important to look back at what happened in social marketing in order to plan for the future. There were four key trends in 2009 that CMOs should reflect on, starting at the macro level then shifting down to micro real-time updates. They are:

The Recession Spurred Consumers to Adopt Social Technologies. Humans are social creatures and, as a result, they tend to band together in hard times. During financial crises, this same behavior is evident: People connect to one other, share, learn, and communicate. What’s more, with unemployment at record highs, those with internet access have more time–and need–to connect with others. It’s evident through Facebook’s 350 million global users. For brands, it’s interesting to note a study by Razorfish, which indicates that 52% of consumers have blogged about a brand’s product or experience. Don’t expect this to change as the recession lifts, as it is the preferred method of communication for young people.

Some Brands Followed Suit With Social Marketing. Marketing budgets are pinched during tough times. Recent data from eMarketer indicates that companies are slashing print budgets by 37% and TV by 21% as a response to the recession. Yet marketers know that tough times also spur innovation, as they experiment with mediums such as social marketing. Social marketing promises lower costs and bigger returns. In fact, word-of-mouth campaigns encourage consumers to do the marketing on behalf of the brand themselves. Yet despite the opportunity, research conducted by the Altimeter Group (where I’m a partner) and Wetpaint found that while brands like Starbucks, Dell, eBay, and Google interact with their customers, most brands do not. Still, we’re seeing a noticeable increase in social marketing budgets, as brands find ways to innovative marketing.

Social Networks Share Data, Spreading Social Influence. A key trend across the technology vendor space in 2009 is that social networks are connecting with other systems. Much like how Apple’s iPhone developer program enables third parties to build and create new applications, many social networks are doing the same. Take for example, LinkedIn, a business network that recently began allowing third party sites to connect with the LinkedIn platform to share data. Similarly, Facebook Connect allows users to log into third party sites using their Facebook ID. There have been over 80,000 connections since this time last year. So what does this data availability mean? It means that consumers’ social experience will spread from site to site, and that wherever they go online or off, they can access their friends’ opinions, experiences, and recommendations in real time.

Consumers Move Faster By Sharing Real-Time Data. In August, 2009, blogger Heather Armstrong, who boasts over a million followers on Twitter was miffed about a shabby customer experience and tweeted about it. Although the company, Whirlpool, responded within hours, the damage had been done–Armstrong’s real-time feedback about her company experience spread quickly through her network and beyond. This spread of customer experiences in real time is a trend, in fact, status updates are a feature found not just in Twitter but in many social networks like Facebook and LinkedIn. Recently, Twitter signed a deal to allow Microsoft’s Bing and Google access its real-time data, displaying real-time tweets which appear along side traditional search results. So what is the impact of this increase in real-time data? It means that consumers can instantly give feedback about their product experiences and tell their friends. For brands, it means they have to move faster to keep up with consumers who are sharing.

Takeaway: This year, consumers are more connected, and moving faster than brands. It’s essential for senior marketers to use the past to plan for the future, and these four trends indicate that people are connecting and sharing with each other–at an increased pace. Brands need to develop a strategy and a plan to respond–not simply react–to the latest technology. In our next piece, we will discuss the key trends to watch in 2010 to help with strategy planning.

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That’s for today till after Christmas! Have a safe holiday!

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